Video/Analysis: Democrats and The Hispanic Vote

One of the most consequential projects I’ve been involved in my long political career has been my work in helping craft a modern strategy for the Democratic Party towards Hispanic voters.

As part of our new Get to 55 project, I will be reviving some of my work in this space and bringing its insights into this conversation about how we expand our coalition and deliver a consequential blow to MAGA next year.

The video above, and text below, were released on October 19th, 2022. I intend on updating this video and analysis to include 2022 election data in the coming weeks. But the election data will only confirm the analysis that is already there, and bolster the assertion that the Democratic Party’s Hispanic strategy has been among its most successful party wide strategies in the past generation of American politics. Enjoy all. There is lots of good news in here.

Video/Analysis: Democrats and the Hispanic Vote (10/19/22)

We are pleased to release a new 25 minute data-filled presentation which reviews the history of the Hispanic vote over the past two decades, and discusses what we are seeing this year. 

The presentation's toplines:

• The net raw vote margin for Democrats with Hispanic voters has increased from 700,000 in 2004 to between 4.5m and 5.4m votes in 2020.  That is growth, not erosion.

• In the past 20 years Democrats have turned the heavily Mexican-American parts of the US – AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX – far more blue.  2020 was the best year for Democrats in the SW – AZ, CO, NM, NV – in 80 years.  2022 could be better.

• Even with their gains in 2020 Rs fell further behind in this region (yes, erosion).  If they can’t make further gains here they will fall further and further behind, and the region will keep slipping away from them. 

Background For the Presentation

12/24/22 - Natasha Korecki cites this analysis in a new NBC News article, Republicans Struggle in the Southwest as Latinos Stick with Democrats. 

Memo: The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party's Hispanic Strategy

2020 Was The Best Year for Dems in the Southwest in 80 Years.  2022 May Be Even Better.

Learn more about our May 2022 polls in AZ, NV, PA showing Dems making gains with Hispanics.

Analysis: The Southwest Has Become A Democratic Stronghold (2020)

In Florida Democrats Lost Ground With All Important Hispanic Voters  (2018)

Among "New Coalition" Voters in 2018, Dems Have Best Performance Ever

Notes On The GOP's Erosion In The Southwest (2017)

Trump Is Right To Be Worried About Arizona (And Texas Too) (2017)